Google to Kill Microsoft? Please Explain.

The consensus about the Google-Sun non-deal, as well as some lucid comments here, is that Google has indeed painted a bullseye on the little company in Redmond.  If so, here's what I don't understand:

What part of Microsoft, exactly, is Google going to "kill"? 

Yes, Google is crushing Microsoft in the web business and will likely continue to, but this is a tiny fraction of Microsoft's empire.  Yes, Google may now help distribute a free office suite, but cheap/free office suites have been around for years and haven't dented the Office juggernaut (for good reasons: it's a superb set of programs and, all things considered, not that expensive for corporate use).  Yes, Google could presumably launch a browser or device operating system, but Microsoft generates no revenue from the browser and little from non-PC device operating systems.

To attack Microsoft's main cash generators, meanwhile--Office and Windows--(and get paid to do it)--Google would have to completely refocus itself.  In the process, it would probably open the door for someone else (Yahoo!? Microsoft?) to swoop in and attack its own core competency: search. 

Google and Microsoft are clearly focused on the same future prize--consumer web services--but this will not threaten Microsoft's core business for years.  Microsoft's real problem is a lack of growth in the core business: it is this--not Google--that is the big threat to the morale and market cap of the company.

Comments

[bronxite]

It would be nice if TypeKey/TypePad could thread comments to a blog posting. Here's another idea, the author of the blog posting could poll respondents with one or more questions. Their response could be used to organize comments somewhat.

[bill]

Google is makie its wifi portal to stay alive.

MS is making it in the home with xbox360

Going to be awsome times indeed.

IMO Look out google

[sigma]

The discussions about Google killing Microsoft have me rolling my eyes.

In particular, common in these discussions are comments about competition for Microsoft Office as if Office were one of the keys to Microsoft's success. To me, no.

To me, the keys to Microsoft's success are: (A) Microsoft's main software -- e.g., Windows, Office, VisualStudio, SQL Server -- are done well enough to be among the best in the world, difficult to equal, and much more difficult to keep up with considering Microsoft's improvements over time. (B) Microsoft's prices per line of code are so low they are difficult to beat. (C) Windows is nearly a 'natural monopoly' due to (a) nearly all the computer users use Windows because essentially all the PC hardware and PC application software are for Windows and (b) nearly all this hardware and software are for Windows because nearly all the computers users use Windows.

So, to me, Microsoft Office doesn't have much to do with the success of Microsoft. I recently changed over to Windows XP Professional SP 2 and do have Office 2003 but I make nearly no use of Office. To me, Office has next to nothing to do with why I changed over to Windows.

I changed to Windows because of (A) the good way Windows supports PC hardware, past, current, and likely future, (B) the large, nearly universal, collection of applications that run on Windows, (C) the basic good functionality and high quality of Windows XP Professional SP 2, (D) the popularity of Windows among other users, (E) the documentation, especially on-line, for Windows, and (F) the solid future of Windows.

So, Google, Sun, etc. could offer free software to replace Office, and I would just yawn. Whether I made heavy use of Office or not, the free software would have to have a LOT going for it for me to use it. The parts of Office I would not want to replace are Word, Excel, and PowerPoint. In my own work, instead of Word and PowerPoint, I prefer TeX and PDF. Instead of Excel, I prefer to write my own software. Still, Word, Excel, and PowerPoint are big pieces of software and very popular with others; so, I want access to this software and do not want replacements.

I am eager to use an alternative to one part of Office: I really hate Outlook and am looking for something else. On my last computer, I wrote my own e-mail software and may do so again. But, on Windows, there is a huge collection of software for e-mail. E.g., I recently downloaded Eudora and may use it. But, my e-mail will STILL be on Windows!

For Sun's 'open' office software, I got a copy some years ago. That software was awful, was wildly too slow and, just from my use of the on-line help, soon hung my computer. I could not have used that software. It does appear that someone at Sun likes to refer to Microsoft's software as a "hairball": I have not always been thrilled with Microsoft's software, but it appears that someone at Sun has some strong negative emotional reactions to Microsoft. Their emotions will not get me to avoid Microsoft's products.

At times, Sun did some good work, and at one time, for much of the future of computing, they really had a big head start. So did BSD, Prime, DEC, DG, IBM, etc. But, on desktops and related systems, Microsoft won the OS wars -- only a few minor pockets of resistance remain! So be it. Mostly that war's over. Computing needs to move on.

Google has done some good work and become wildly successful. In more detail, they have indexed much of the content of the Internet and sell targeted ads based on searches. Very good for Google. If you were selling Mark 5 Widgets, would you want to spend your ad money on one of the major TV networks, where under 1% of the audience even knows what a Widget is, or in response to searches for 'widgets' on Google? No-brainer.

Should Microsoft have done what Google, Skype, Brightcove, and some others did, done these things first, and basically gotten those successes for the Microsoft stockholders? Perhaps. But, there is tomorrow where we all want much more.

For the great dramatic 'clash of titans battle-royal' between Google and Microsoft, I see little real battle here. But, I can believe that Microsoft could build a search site as good as Google's and get both users and ad revenue much, much easier than Google could write software to compete with Windows, Office, SQL Server, VisualStudio, etc. and get people to use those products. So, in such a battle, I would bet on Microsoft.

The bigger question is, what are we going to do for big successes tomorrow?

[Network]

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