Microsoft to Kill Google? No.
So the big story these days is that Google and Microsoft are going to war and that either could win. This is a big story because it's a great story: two undefeated heavyweights preparing to bash each other's brains out. Alas, it's also fiction.
Despite ten years of effort, vast technological and financial resources, and a legendary intensity, Microsoft is running a distant third in the web wars (behind Google and Yahoo!)--and it continues to fall farther behind. Importantly, this is almost the same competitive position Microsoft occupied in 1995, when Yahoo! was run out of a dorm room and Google didn't exist. Microsoft was trying desperately to win the Internet war then, and it has tried desperately every year since. And despite all its assets, the best it has been able to do is run a distant third.
From a high level, this is not surprising: the leader of one technology revolution rarely dominates the next. Microsoft is an enterprise software company, not a consumer web services company, and therefore its success on the web is commendable. Commendable does not mean dominant, however, and those who argue that Microsoft's new search technology will suddenly overthrow Google are forgetting all that has happened in the last ten years.
In the absence of disastrous mistakes by Google and Yahoo!, Microsoft's best chance to win with MSN is to merge it with AOL and spin it off. This would be extraordinarily challenging, and it would not guarantee success: the merged company would still run third behind Google and Yahoo!. A combined MSN-AOL, however, would be far stronger than either company alone.
At Cherry Hill Research (fledgling industry analysis company), we recently published a piece on this. Feel free to view if interested. (The Web War is Over and Microsoft Lost, Cherry Hill Research, Sept 2005)
Great report! Thanks!
Posted by:Jack Miller | October 04, 2005 at 10:44 PM
I think you could be wrong on this. How long did it take for Microsoft to win against Lotus Notes -- 10+ years. How long was it before Lotus 123 vanished -- 10+ years. How long did it take to take on UNIX in a convincing way -- 10+ years. How long since General Magic and Newton came out before Microsoft looks like it may dominate smartphones and PDAs -- 12+ years. How long did it take to take out the Mac -- 11+ years. How long has it taken for SQL shipments to rival and beat Oracle -- 12+ years.
The problem with analysts like you is that you have never done it yourself. So, you don't know how long it takes to win.
Posted by:joeblow | October 05, 2005 at 10:48 AM
I agree, despite what Steve Ballmer says, Microsoft is not going to kill (or bury) Google. Conversely, Google will not kill Microsoft.
Microsoft is a business software company while Google is a consumer web services company. Not much overlap.
I do like your idea/suggestion that MSN acquire AOL. It all comes down to price.
Twenty years ago Microsoft was going to kill IBM too. Didn't happen. Although, IBM is a very different company today.
Posted by:Don Dodge | October 05, 2005 at 04:19 PM
You're totally missing something really critical by pegging MSN adCenter as "new ad targeting technology." That's company spin, and it's nice to see they've been so effective.
But what's really happening is Microsoft is taking a business that it had outsourced to Overture (now part of Yahoo) and bringing it in house. Today, almost all paid search listings on MSN are provided by Overture/Yahoo. For each clickthrough, MSN splits the revenue with Overture (70-30 in MSN's favor is what some have estimated). That's the reason why MSN's ad growth is trailing the industry's--because it has ALWAYS OUTSOURCED the fastest-growing part of the online advertising business!
By mid-2006, that partnership is over. MSN keeps 100% of paid search revenue.
Assuming that SEMs will still want their advertisers displayed on MSN (which is #3 in terms of traffic, but still too big to ignore), they'll take some of that ad spend away from Overture/Yahoo and give it to MSN.
What we're about to see is a major disruption in Yahoo's most important revenue stream. It'll vault MSN firmly into third place.
Moreover, buying AOL's about the stupidest thing Microsoft could do. AOL has more revenue, but its main source of revenue is an old, dying business, dial-up Internet access. At least Microsoft's been on the right track for a few years now. The only AOL asset MSN could possibly want is access to its IM userbase.
Another point: yeah, Microsoft tried to monetize MSN for years and failed miserably. But they've only realized in the last three years that advertising, not paid subscriptions, is going to be the main source of revenue, and their leadership (post Rick Belluzzo and some of the other clowns who used to run MSN) realizes this as well. So I'd count their "start" date as 2002--right around the time they started working on a search engine.
So you're right--the Google vs. Microsoft media stories are a distraction. The real target's Yahoo. And ensuring they stay ahead of AOL.
Posted by:MattyDread | October 05, 2005 at 07:41 PM
Its oct! time to touch 9750 and 1900 oh well .....
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