Ruh Roh. Web 2.0 Rocking Like It's 1999

Hats off to John Batelle and Tim O'Reilly for staging such an excellent conference.  And seat-belts on because the most common observation in the hallways--made with tremble of panic--is that it's deja vu all over again (and not just because I'm here).  The workshops are jammed, the coffee-pots drained, and the massive central auditorium turning mobs away at the doors. 

If this were a cheapo trade show, no problem.  The fear here is that most people at Web 2.0 paid about $3,000 to get in (2X the usual), and they're not all billionaire Googlers and venture-capitalists.  The fear is also is that terms like "revolution" and "20th Century thinking" and "Web 2.0" are echoing off the walls, the latter spoken as though everything that has happened in the industry until now was a sort of kindergarten recess.

Here's to praying that the exuberance is not a herald of rough times ahead.  And here's a toast to all the inspiring, fascinating, and massive opportunities to come.

Comments

[Johannes]

Hi Henry, welcome to the blogosphere!

I hope you'll soon write about china and chinese stocks again - like you did for slate.com. I know, when it comes to China you speak of yourself as an outsideroutsideroutsider but you're such an experienced "outsider" that it's always inspiring and a pleasure to hear your thoughts.

Kind regards, Johannes (China Net Investor: http://china-netinvestor.blogspot.com/ )

[Dalibor]

Me too, sensing childish atmosphere among the crowd over there at Web2Con ( note, I'm not there, but here in Croatia ).
Currently, there's that meme called ''Web 2.0'' which is greatly misunderstood, IMHO. Yes, it's about better user interface ( and exciting web apps ) for the web application , but I am skeptical it will translate into great sudden ( ! ) monetization. ( Have in mind that Ajax is not advertising friendly concept ).
We've seen so much signals lately that are telling us there's to much money chasing ( desperatly ) profitable web ventures. Just to name few: RSS ventures ( 100 milllion fund ), Odeo and Podshow ( Timing still not there ), EBay bought Skype for 4 billion ( too much is too much ) , Yahoo bought Upcoming.org ( c'mon folks, who needs that ), and today I heard Verisign bought Weblogs.com ( good god ! ).

Back to current Web2Con, in my perspective.
I hoped something wise and interesting will come out of these days. But looking at the coverage of the last few days, I am dissapointed ( maybe again it's a game of expectation ).
Something called Attention Trust Recorder ( unpractical, almost stupid to rough ) told me it's something rotten with Web2Con, just to name one suspisiouse moment.
Who the hell needs this and it is touted in a such conference ( where attendees are ''who's who in internet business'' ) ?
Yay. And I have many thoughts that need to be sort out in my head about other things showcased there.
So much utopian concepts there and wrong business assumptions. Perhaps it helps beign far away from Sillicon Valley to get objective opinion ( hope it is reasonable if not objective ) ;)

[Dalibor]

Me too, sensing childish atmosphere among the crowd over there at Web2Con ( note, I'm not there, but here in Croatia ).
Currently, there's that meme called ''Web 2.0'' which is greatly misunderstood, IMHO. Yes, it's about better user interface ( and exciting web apps ) for the web application , but I am skeptical it will translate into great sudden ( ! ) monetization. ( Have in mind that Ajax is not advertising friendly concept ).
We've seen so much signals lately that are telling us there's to much money chasing ( desperatly ) profitable web ventures. Just to name few: RSS ventures ( 100 milllion fund ), Odeo and Podshow ( Timing still not there ), EBay bought Skype for 4 billion ( too much is too much ) , Yahoo bought Upcoming.org ( c'mon folks, who needs that ), and today I heard Verisign bought Weblogs.com ( good god ! ).

Back to current Web2Con, in my perspective.
I hoped something wise and interesting will come out of these days. But looking at the coverage of the last few days, I am dissapointed ( maybe again it's a game of expectation ).
Something called Attention Trust Recorder ( unpractical, almost stupid to rough ) told me it's something rotten with Web2Con, just to name one suspisiouse moment.
Who the hell needs this and it is touted in a such conference ( where attendees are ''who's who in internet business'' ) ?
Yay. And I have many thoughts that need to be sort out in my head about other things showcased there.
So much utopian concepts there and wrong business assumptions. Perhaps it helps beign far away from Sillicon Valley to get objective opinion ( hope it is reasonable if not objective ) ;)

[Dalibor]

Me too, sensing childish atmosphere among the crowd over there at Web2Con ( note, I'm not there, but here in Croatia ).
Currently, there's that meme called ''Web 2.0'' which is greatly misunderstood, IMHO. Yes, it's about better user interface ( and exciting web apps ) for the web application , but I am skeptical it will translate into great sudden ( ! ) monetization. ( Have in mind that Ajax is not advertising friendly concept ).
We've seen so much signals lately that are telling us there's to much money chasing ( desperatly ) profitable web ventures. Just to name few: RSS ventures ( 100 milllion fund ), Odeo and Podshow ( Timing still not there ), EBay bought Skype for 4 billion ( too much is too much ) , Yahoo bought Upcoming.org ( c'mon folks, who needs that ), and today I heard Verisign bought Weblogs.com ( good god ! ).

Back to current Web2Con, in my perspective.
I hoped something wise and interesting will come out of these days. But looking at the coverage of the last few days, I am dissapointed ( maybe again it's a game of expectation ).
Something called Attention Trust Recorder ( unpractical, almost stupid to rough ) told me it's something rotten with Web2Con, just to name one suspisiouse moment.
Who the hell needs this and it is touted in a such conference ( where attendees are ''who's who in internet business'' ) ?
Yay. And I have many thoughts that need to be sort out in my head about other things showcased there.
So much utopian concepts there and wrong business assumptions. Perhaps it helps beign far away from Sillicon Valley to get objective opinion ( hope it is reasonable if not objective ) ;)

[Dalibor]

Ups, too much time pushed that button when posting comment, sorry about that ;)

[Jason]

couple of things:

1. Many of the Web 2.0 companies are living in a revenue-free fantasy world, however they are not raising a ton of capital nor are they spending a lot of money. So, there's little harm in folks building revenue-free companies now because they are only spending $50-500k doing it.

2. If these revenue-free/revenue-light Web 2.0 companies make somethig that gets user traction there are plenty of places that can pick them up and plug them into their advertising infrastructure.

3. The advertising market has finally arrived, so even a small company can work hard and start making $100,000 a month in revenue. Compare that to the early days when people were either spending money on advertising without thinking, or not spending it because they didn't understand the value.

4. Critical mass. We've got enough people online, spending online, living online, and most importantly--growing up ONLINE--that there is no issue with waiting for users to show up. If you build something with value it's gonna get some users.

Is there a bubble? i don't think so because the valuations right now are based on revenue and earnings. The business is starting to look like software or magazines--just better growth and better multiples.

[Brian]

Was that a demonstration of Web 2.0 Dalibor? Bravo! Web 2.0 will be so cool because it will be like the web today except give you a warm fuzzy feeling, but maybe that's just venture capitalists pissing down your leg.

[Anthony]

Here is intresting people... Lets talk!
;)

[Felicia]

Hello, Admin! You are the best!!! Congratulations. Best regards from regular visitor of your site. ;)
;)

[Joseph]

Hi! lonely hort!
;)