Exploring Gates' Pay-Users-To Search Idea

Bill Gates's ruminations about compensating users for searches hit the mainstream this morning in the WSJ.  The concept also prompted much thoughtful commentary over the weekend, both here and elsewhere.

Several readers pointed out, for example, that the concept is not new: Amazon's A9 gives searchers a small rebate on Amazon once they meet a certain threshold (number of searches).  This method controls the most obvious problem with the idea, which is the potential for massive click-fraud.  The A9 discount is small, so it is hard to know how effective a lure the offer would be if it amounted to, say, 25%-50% of the value of the clicks a given searcher generated, but it is worth noting that it has not helped A9 gain much traction in the search wars.

Given the threat of click fraud, a large MSN program would probably have to take the form of something like frequent flier miles or reward points instead of cash, and it would also probably have to be tied directly to purchases (users would only get their points if/when they actually bought something from a search advertiser).  The reward would also have to be meaningful in size, especially at the beginning, or most users probably wouldn't even bother to establish an account.

If the program were structured this way, however, and if it allowed the average searcher to generate a meaningful amount of value over the course of a year, it would likely help MSN both gain share and retain users.  This said, unless MSN shares a major percentage of search revenue--say, half--the program would not likely gut Google's current cash flow or force it to respond in kind.  Right now, most web users search on Google because they equate it with search and because they are creatures of habit.  And it costs more to break habits than a few pennies a month.