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January 27, 2006

Comments

Chris Fischer

I'm curious if you redid that survey with people stating their positions (long/short/none.) It seems most of the highball estimates are from people that obviously own the stock..

Henry Blodget

There does seem to be a long bias in the estimates. That said, I do think the average is a reasonable approximation of the whisper. Next quarter, I'll ask for disclosure of positions.

Mal

Henry-

Great work. Your site has become one of my fav's.

Regards

mr fuckedgoogle

I say earnings will be light, and the stock will plunge down to 350 within about 10 seconds of the earnings announcement in afterhours trading.

phr

All you doomsday prognosticators should remember that even if goog does just consensus revenues, EPS projections for 06 and 07 will have to go up, as they are based on much slower revenue growth (and ridiculously low margins). If the street comes up to $13-14 post 4Q, your $350 number will mean that a company growing revenues close to 100% with no meaningful deceleration and a 110% ROIC will be trading at 25x 2007 earnings, and that's absurd.

The other point, Henry is that if that 1.379b revenue number is a good one, I'll bet my first born on the over on a flat stock price the next day (exaggerating for effect on the first born, but still).

mr fuckedgoogle

No, making a price decision based on 2007 earnings estimates is absurd, considering nobody knows the impact YHOO or MSFT's entry into goog's current text-ad monopoly business will be.

Also, there is something known as "ad burnout" where people begin to "tune out" ads..

Personally, I dont even see adsense ads anymore. Most people started tuning out banner ads around 2000-2001, and the clickthrough rates plummeted 90% or more.

That burnout could happen this year, you never know.

phr

it's people like you that juice this stock, my friend. Clearly you have no idea what you're talking about -- since when does goog have a monopoly? Overture/Yahoo has been in this business longer than Google, they invented it.

And when is this ballyhooed "entry" supposed to occur? Did you read the MSFT 10q? MSN is a complete disaster. If that's the big competitive threat that GOOG faces, it's a joke.

Good luck waiting for the ad burnout. . .

mr fuckedgoogle

Google has a 100% monopoly with adsense for small publishers. Yahoo and Microsoft don't even allow small websites into their ad program except in a few impossible-to-get-in beta programs.

Well, I shouldn't say 100%.. For all the ads for various frauds and scams (offshore casinos, meet sexy singles now, penis enlargement, valium without a prescription), Adbrite has that market locked up. They take the advertisers that Google refuses.

Other than that, Goog's dominance of the small website industry is total. And that's where GOOG gets nearly half its revenue from. Any attack on that monopoly position will hurt them badly.

Devin Thorpe

Henry,

What do you think the impact of a material downward revaluation of Google might be on the tech market in general?

ddt

Javaflash

My 2 cents (biased): I believe analysts & press, inside or outside, constantly pounded Google in a quest to seek public attention, almost out of desperation. Take MarketWatch for example. These folks report about Google every other day almost as if they camp outside of 1600 Amphitheatre Pkwy, Mountain View, CA. The general templates of discussion = price too high, price too low, someone else says price too high, someone else says price too low. Repeat.

Could we please have some talks with actual substance? I mean, real investment insights into the technology sector, not some half-baked 24-hour economics, or copycat speculations that change direction every time we blink. Whew!

alan e

According to Yahoo Finance, GOOG had revenue of $1.578B for the qtr. How is 32% growth translate to $1.29B billion for this quarter. Negative sequential growth?

mr fuckedgoogle

So where do I collect my prize, henry?

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