And the Winner Is...
In the first quarterly Google Earnings Sweepstakes, readers were invited to submit their best estimates of 1) Q4 Net Revenue, and 2) Market Reaction (as determined by opening trade). Because fundamentals are only one half of the equation, I thought there might be two winners, one for each category. But one prescient reader took home everything.
Before showering this individual in promised glory, it bears mentioning that, in aggregate, Internet Outsider readers generated a very good approximation of investor expectations ($1.35-$1.4 billion), as well as what might happen if the company merely met printed Street estimates (plunge). For this alone, the experiment deserves to be repeated.
And now for the moment you've all been waiting for...
Google's Q4 net revenue was $1.29 billion, and the stock opened down 10%. Grand Prize Winner "Chris" predicted that Q4 net revenue would be...$1.29 billion, and that the stock would open...down 10%. Folks, you can't get more accurate than that.
So congratulations to Mr., Mrs., or Ms. "Chris". Here's hoping that he/she put a boatload of money where his/her mouth was.
We should also note that Mr., Mrs., Ms. "Shinkdew" receives an honorable mention for nailing the revenue number ($1.29 billion). In fact, all things being official, Mr. Mrs. Ms. Shinkdew deserves to share the "Estimate" prize glory with Mr. Mrs. Ms Chris. Alas, Mr. Mrs. Ms. Shinkdew predicted that this performance would trigger an 18% plunge. Although this is almost exactly the level where the stock traded in the immediate aftermarket, the collective investor mood improved overnight. In any case, congratulations.
well thank you! it is always nice to 'win' something!
Posted by: Chris | February 01, 2006 at 01:54 PM
Congrats, Chris.
Did you short the stock before earnings?
Posted by: Henry To | February 01, 2006 at 04:20 PM
Google and Iran are the two targets for United States in 2006
Posted by: jd | February 01, 2006 at 06:20 PM
Google and Iran are the two targets for United States in 2006
http://www.googleversus.us
Posted by: jd | February 01, 2006 at 06:20 PM
WTF Henry. Why did you pull my post off the other article? Did I strike a nerve?
Did you start having Flash Backs to your days as an analyst at Merrill Lynch?
Posted by: John Brosco | February 02, 2006 at 06:52 AM