The Ask Test: Why Search Isn't Like TV

Well, here it comes, the test of the theory that Google is winning the search war only because its product is better and that, as soon as another site develops a better product, Google will crumble.  IAC's Ask is finally relaunching, with the aim of improving its 6% market share, and, according to Ask, anyway, it's the best in the business.

Personally, I have no idea whether it's the best, just as I have no idea whether Google's any better than Yahoo! and Yahoo!'s any better than MSN.  I mostly use Yahoo! because I use MyYahoo, and as far as I am concerned, Yahoo! search does a perfectly acceptable job.  My theory about the search business, moreover, is not that "users will immediately switch to the best search engine," but that users will use whatever search engine they are used to using--unless the gulf between that search service and the leading search service becomes so great that it cannot possibly be ignored.

Put differently, I think Google is continuing to gain share in search because it has become synonymous with "search," and I think the vast majority of its users probably have no idea whether it is any better than any other engine.  For this reason, even if Google becomes slightly worse than most other engines, users will continue to use it--unless and until the gap becomes so obvious that it can't be ignored.

All of which is a long way of saying, although Google does not have a "monopoly" in search the way that Microsoft Windows has a monopoly in operating systems, its hold over its users is far greater than, say, NBC's hold over its viewers.  As discussed in this post on Ask, I do not think the "Fox Network" analogy makes sense for search, because I don't think search users are as ready and eager to switch to the next hot show as television viewers are.  Search engines are not about entertainment, they are about utility and user-habits, which are far more prosaic (and, therefore, defensible) than, say, a hit television show.  Google took the search world by storm because Yahoo! and other early leaders got seduced by the sexiness of "content" and took their eyes off the search ball.  Unless Google does this--which it easily could--I think Ask and the other small engines will continue to fight over scraps.

In my opinion, Ask should eventually be able to build a defensible niche search business, but to do so, it will have to focus (either on certain verticals, which would make sense given IAC's porfolio, or on a certain level of search service).  Barring dumb mistakes by Google, Yahoo!, and MSN, however, I don't see it becoming another Fox.

Good posts:

John Battelle

Gary Price

Comments

[Still Inside]

Unless the search engines figure out a way to differentiate their core offering (viz. allow people to find what they want better / faster / cheaper), then this battle is going to be about marketing and brand managegement. This plays into GOOGs hands right now. As I posted before about the recent MSN give-aways, there are billions and billions of dollars at stake, so I suspect that say that the game will NOT stay the same...

[Srinivasan]

Many ppl miss an important point when talking about google search: ppl have "learnt" how to get the best results from google - whats the combination of words that gives the best results, slowly "google specialists" are emerging everywhere.

Now this is dangerous. because if you try your google tactics in other engines, you will obviously feel that the other engine is inferior.

[Wizzbox]

This is a desktop battle not a search battle and Diller is entering the fray completely unarmed.

[Henry Blodget]

Is it really a "desktop battle"? That theory has never really resonated with me. Ever since the browser arrived, the desktop seems to have become far less relevant. I feel like the proof of this is Microsoft: They own the desktop, the browser, the browser defaults, and the whole new-user start-up experience, and yet, for ten years, they have run a distant third in the web wars.

I don't think it's so much a "desktop battle" as a mindshare battle, and, right now, Google is winning it hands-down. (And I think Diller's entering that one un-armed, too).

[KH Stroem]

Henry - just some food for thought:
All other things equal, once one company becomes "too" dominating in the industry (as perceived by the customer base/opportunity) people have a tendency to change behaviour towards no 2 or no 3.

As mentioned this is all other things equal which means that there can not be a large difference in product or experience which I agree with you there is not in search today.

This may be a European phenomenon where we tend to like the underdogs but as long as google is as dominates as they do there will always be a counter reaction.

[Wizzbox]

Your point re: mindshare v. desktop is fair. I think we are talking about the same thing in that, in my opinion the definition of the desktop is changing. The new desktop is about what your homepage is, what your browser is, what browser toolbars you use, etc.

So its a mind share game, but it is also very much a distribution game. See link for more thoughts.

http://wizzbox.wordpress.com/2006/03/02/why-the-search-battle-is-actually-a-desktop-battle/