Subscribe

Resources

« What Google's Thinking? | Main | Google Finance: Yawn (Updated: Wow) »

March 16, 2006

Comments

Neal Lachman

While writing a comment to this post I stumbled upon a problem with my just-installed IE7 Beta. I am using FireFox to write this comment, and felt the urge to share this troubling experience by way of my blog. http://www.nealsperspective.com/blogs/?p=30

Anyway, now to comment (yes yes Firefox enabled!) on this post and Henry's findings...

1) MSN Search has done a smart thingy... they focus on Brand advertising rather than retail/mom-pop advertising. That will increasingly become important in the online ad business, while Google and the like will have to deal with growing paints for... ever.

2) We all can sense (no pun intended to Google's superb ad brand) that this whole click fraud affair will deepen and widen. Will Google be able to fend off attacks by imposters, false claims, let alone valid claims?

3) If the click fraud issue is such a huge problem, is Google then not setting itself up for a landslide by ignoring the problem?

The most important problem that awaits the likes of Google, Yahoo, MSN, is not even click fraud, it may be some genius other concept that allows revenue sharing. The latter may thus add to an already large enough problem that can tackle if not cripple the whole search/ad industry (in terms of profitability).

I am sure I am forgetting many more worse-case scenarios (some may say doomsday scenarios), but I am convinced that we are going to be served with a nasty reality show.

Mr Wavetheory

Looks like Google just filed their 10-K. Mr WaveTheory posted his analysis of the trends cited in the 10k in this posting ... Google filed their 10-K. Very insightful.

Louis Gray

It seems that Google's employees are enjoying their stock money rather than focusing on fixing problems like these which could significantly impact their future business, which would make the $150 fall so far on their stock seem like a breeze.

One needs only view Google's blog to see how they're wasting their time - pictures of pugs, Google Mars, and SMS sports scores. That's not exactly the type of activity they need to become a real $100 billion company.

As someone who has used Adwords extensively in the past, and is looking to re-engage, we need to know that our marketing and ad dollars are going to be well spent and accurately tracked.

More here:
Google Stretching for Announcements
http://feeds.feedburner.com/LouisgraycomLive?m=241

Still Inside

Click fraud is akin to email spam. It's a serious problem, but nothing that can't be handled with some diligence.

Let's talk about some of the "diligence" that's been involved with fighting email spam:

1. A consortium of the largest players in telecommunications have consistently lobbied congress (on behalf of most of the Global 1000) to enact tough new laws against spam.

2. Entire companies, such as Brightmail, have been created to combat the problem.

3. The Global 1000 spend billions of dollars per year to fight spam.

4. Thousands of scholars and think-tankers spend their careers devising new ways of fighting spam.

And so on.

So GOOG is right in saying that, in effect, this isn't a paradigm-killer. However, if they are not the ones to solve it, it will indeed be a GOOG-killer.


SI

Neal Lachman

SI,

You hit the nail -righ there- on its ugly head.

joe

i still don't see what the problem is here...

IF ROI is sufficient to the customer then click fraud is negligible. And if sales are generated then the customer will keep coming back. I’m afraid the situation is that simple.

Google’s goal is to bring surfers to the customer’s site. However the customer has to sell to the surfer.

Again, if the customer experienced a larger sales increase, w/ an acceptable ROI, being part of Google’s ad network then click fraud is a negligible issue. If not price-per-click will come down… but this is NOT happening. Obviously the customer is seeing something value added w/ Google.

One can argue the increase in price is coming from the ‘big money players’ like P&G or the big retailer. But would these companies not test the waters first before spending a lot of money? My guess is YES. Any larger company tests then implements. My guess is that their tests showed a lot of ROI so they are shifting ad $ to Google.

Also, while Google is increasing margins, they are providing more and more information to their customer base to better track ROI. (there can be a situation where Google and their customers can win)

Neal Lachman

Joe, that's oversimplistic rationalizing, "If I have $1M in my bank, why would I worry that my $100K ferrari is stolen from my garage."
I hate to break the news, but business doesn't work that way, no matter the size of the business and the revenue scale.

Click-fraud amounts to theft of money, nothing less than that. P&G and the like will only see value in Online Brand Advertising and not so much in AdSense kind of click-through (value-per-click) kind of deals. For them, AdSense makes no sense. (Damn, I can't resist the incidental puns!)

The last issue you described (G providing more information to track ROI) is not really of importance in the click-fraude debate. It would be important if it would be the other way around, when advertisers would be willing to share their information, e.g. what happens when the Adsense clicker comes on the advertiser's site. However, these businesses are not going to be willing to share their revenue and trade secrets. This leaves the onus on Google. I hope Google will find an efficient way to solve this problem, else it will be disastrous.


Still Inside

Joe:

I remember people saying, way-back-when, "I don't see the big deal behind email spam. I get a few messages a day that are spam and I just delete them".

The problem is that in a situation where the incremental cost is nearly zero (running the spam-bot programs) and the profit is greater than the incremental costs (not hard, considering the nearly zero incremental cost), then situation will increase to the point of saturation.

In other words, the email spam problem got worse and worse, and if it wasn't for the all-out nuclear war that was waged against it, email would be useless today at the "few messages a day" you used to get would balloon to tens of thousands.

Click fraud is the same.

The point I was trying to make in my previous posting was this. GOOG has a brand name to protect, and like email spam for folks like AOL and ELNK, and operating system security for MSFT, and fraud protection for folks like VISA, etc. this is a hot-button issue with customers.

Can customers carefully track their ROI and create systems to detect click fraud? Possibly. It's a lot easier to spend their money on a company that takes the problem seriously, and isn't actively ignoring it. Customers like P&G do not want to hire large technical teams just to track down click-fraud, and they want the assurance that their ROI is what the vendor says it is. The ability to "pefectly" track ROI without any X factors why they switched away from old advertising in the first place.

Look for YHOO, MSFT, and the smaller players like Quigo et. al. to start taking the problem seriously, and baking the message into their marketing mix. GOOG will have to follow at some point, but then they will be behind at a key inflection point in the growth of their own market. Brilliant.

SI

Mark

Click revenue moving to a flat fee...similar to commission based brokerage moving to fee based. Interesting to see how it could be priced. Certainly would alleviate a lot of ROI doubts from the advertiser's perspective.

Anon

The problem is ROI is not sufficient. Online advertising is in the "gotta be there, gotta do it" phase. There is no ROI for most. Most are experimenting.

Tom

The core of the issue is indeed that “no real data” exists. How big a problem is click fraud and is it growing? While we don’t claim to have all the answers I do believe we have a more statistically significant dataset than anyone else published at www.ClickFraudIndex.com. Our member base has grown significantly since the Click Fraud Network was launched a few weeks ago. We are reporting that the instance of “high threat level” clicks is currently at 16.4%. As our Network grows we will be able to announce threat levels by vertical market, search provider and other relevant subsets. The industry will see that there is a big disparity across industries and providers.

Looking at individual campaigns or advertisers and trying to draw conclusions is pointless. Our approach is to aggregate the data by providing our tool at no cost to the 90% of PPC advertisers who have less than 100,000 paid clicks per month. This “collective intelligence” provides protection for them while helping the industry by revealing the scope and nature of click fraud. Similar to the approach taken by spam filters or anti virus tools, the Click Fraud Network data powers the rating engine making our algorithm as accurate as possible.

Henry is on to something. We want to help answer the questions. Click fraud is not “immaterial”, so rather than speculate, let’s work together to peel back the onion. Advertisers should go to www.JointheNetwork.com and let’s solve the problem.

Neal Lachman

Tom,

Great concept. I hope your endeavor is successful, it will finally create some real life data that may be essential to calculate ROI and risks.

Good luck.

Still Inside

Tom:

That's a great space you are entering into. I hope it goes well for you.

I almost feel like you read my post above and started a company based on it. (See: "Companies like P&G do not want to hire large technical teams just to track down click-fraud...").

If this is the case, please PayPal me 10% of the millions of dollars you are going to make to the address below.

Seriously though, you actually didn't quite go into area I pointed out, which is that companies are going to need the tools to figure out their own ROI for paid search. I don't think the endevour is pointless (quite the contrary), but it's not something that a start-up can easily do. What you are doing is. Good luck to you.


SI

Mr Wave Theory

I blogged about the racism and sexism in the executive suite at Google based on facts and figures from the Google Annual Report.

It is entitled Google Why Are You So Racist and Sexist?

http://mrwavetheory.blogspot.com/2006/03/google-why-are-you-so-sexist-and.html

Neal Lachman

Mr. Wave Theory,

This is not my blog, but this annoys me very much.

The kind of stuff you have posted is not the topic here. If you have a personal issue or vendetta against Google, and want to destroy their public image, you have plenty of message boards out there.

Let's talk business.

Still Inside

I had looked though the MWT blog a while back and could find nothing of interest, only useless personal attacks on GOOG mixed in with a few facts that we already knew.

A lot of hack journalists get their start jumping aboard what they see as a moving train and fill up their time with cross-over topics that will catch the eye of the big media's right or left flanks (the Left in this case). Then you get your first guest appearance, and its just snowballs.

SI

Todd

I actually like Mr Wavetheory. I think his latest post is interesting. He says that revenue per query at Google is slowing down.

The Key Metric at Google is Revenue per Query

enndot

click fraud?

check this out...

http://thepyramidsofgoogle.blogspot.com/

Ultimate Kong

I wonder when the card processors will step in? My understanding is that the proccesors have a very hard line when it comes to participating in any fraudulent transaction, due diligence and being very important, all it takes is one to step up and its GAME OVER for these lying search engines.

gregbo

Well, FWIW, here's my thoughts on the click fraud problem.

As long as it is cheap and easy to anonymously generate clicks on the Internet, there will be click fraud. If you switch to fixed fees, both the ability and incentive for generating fraudulent clicks goes away, as does the costly infrastructure put in place to try to catch them.

What surprises me most of all is that it is very well known in the technical Internet community that click fraud can be easily committed, but Google, with their experts, didn't take this into account early enough in the deployment of AdWords and AdSense.

jbutler

While we are very active in several click fraud detection programs and are running our own application as well, we have a hard time seeing how a third party detection setup is going to be any more efficient or 'correct' than those provided by the engines. Barring engine fraud or less-than-motivated developers at the engines.

Hear me when I say that there is no definition of click fraud that can be used by all concerned parties, and therefore, at least until a definition is developed and accepted by everyone, there will never be any consistently reliable numbers for the depth or costs associated with click fraud.

That's one really big problem.

Another really big problem is that all sorts of third parties are popping up saying "give us your data and we'll give you some evidence", but very very few of them are capable of executing that promise.

I see some posters mentioning the difficulty faced by the engines in the absence of ROI data that is closely-held by the consumers. Does anyone think that a third party is going to have any better luck obtaining that data from a significant number of participants? This places all third parties on an uneven playing field, as the engines clearly have substantially more data at their disposal than any third party ever will.

There are lots of problems with click fraud, and not the least of them are third parties who are trying to sell the next "killer app" as they gather data and feverishly work into the wee hours to attempt to develop an algorithm that works.

It hasn't been written yet, folks. Any party that claims to have an efficient algorithm is selling something they don't yet have. And given the rate at which fraud methodology is evolving, it's hard to imagine that an algorithm will ever be able to do the job.

The problem with click fraud is the business model and the inability to monitor and enforce it. Click fraud, as it is now, will go away when the PPC model and affiliate PPC networks pass into history.

assparade

milf-cruiser
1000orgasms
1000 orgasms
2chicks1dick
2 chicks 1 dick
adultrealitypass
adult reality pass
bigsausagepizza
big sausage pizza
bigtitbangers
big tit bangers
bikinibanger
bikini banger
blackbroswhitehoes
black bros white hoes
borderbangers
border bangers
cheerleaderauditions
cheerleader auditions
collegefuckfest
college fuck fest
eatmyblackmeat
eat my black meat
eurobridetryouts
euro bride tryouts
eurofucktrip
euro fuck trip
girlshuntinggirls
girls hunting girls
hardcorepartying
hardcore partying
latinacaliente
latina caliente
limopatrol
limo patrol
littleapril
little april
megapornaccess
mega porn access
milfcruiser
milf cruiser
milkmycock
milk my cock
mommylovescock
mommy loves cock
nakedcollegecoeds
naked college coeds
nudebeachhouse
nude beach house
realrookies
real rookies
rectalrooter
rectal rooter
rightofftheboat
right off the boat
slutseeker
slut seeker
stripclubexposed
strip club exposed
teenbrazil
teen brazil
teenhitchhikers
teen hitchhikers
yankmycrank
yank my crank
seventeen-live
adultmoviezone
adult movie zone
allbigcocks
all big cocks
asianangels
asian angels
asiaporno
asia porno
bigandslutty
big and slutty
clubseventeen
club seventeen
clubseven teen
club seven teen
cumsplatter
cum splatter
dirtydykes
dirty dykes
dirtyteen
dirty teen
dudedorm
dude dorm
dudesonline
dudes online
excusemeclub
excuseme club
excuse me club
fuckspy
fuck spy
girlsfrombrasil
girls from brasil
grannyfucking
granny fucking
interracialfuck
interracial fuck
interracialfuckorgy
interracial fuck orgy
interracialorgy
interracial orgy
irorgy
ir orgy
jimslip
jim slip
lolitasex
lolita sex
lolitateen
lolita teen
meninthenude
men in the nude
mrskin
mr skin
mysexykittens
my sexy kittens
nitrocelebs
nitro celebs
oldfartsyoungtarts
old farts young tarts
oldtarts
old tarts
redlightdistrict
red light district
retroraw
retro raw
rodox
seventeenlive
seven teenlive
seventeen live
seven teen live
seventeenvideo
seven teenvideo
seventeen video
seven teen video
sexspy
sex spy
sinfultales
sinful tales
spycams
spy cams
teenmoviezone
teen movie zone
teensex
teen sex
teensfromtokyo
teens from tokyo
teenshomealone
teens home alone
teenteenteen
teen teen teen
titvision
tit vision
topcams
top cams
ukroadtrips
uk roadtrips
uk road trips
upskirts
up skirts
wasteland
waste land
wetscape
wet scape
wivesexposed
wives exposed
insanecockbrothas
adultcams
adult cams
allgangbang
all gang bang
allrealityxxxpass
allreality xxxpass
all reality xxx pass
allstarstuds
all star studs
amateurpie
amateur pie
analvalley
anal valley
asianparade
asian parade
back seat banger
backseatbangers
back seat bangers
bangboat
bang boat
bestmovies
best movies
bigcocksex
big cock sex
blackcockswhitesluts
black cocks white sluts
boobexamscam
boob exam scam
bubblebuttsgalore
bubblebutts galore
bubble butts galore
cartoon69
cartoon 69
cheerchix
cheer chix
collegewildparties
college wild parties
couplesseduceteens
couples seduce teens
cyberfoldsweb
cyber folds web
discountrealitysites
discount reality sites
dopornstars
do porn stars
ebonyjoy
ebony joy
euroteensxxx
euro teens xxx
facialmag
facial mag
fantasylatina
fantasy latina
fetishhell
fetish hell
firsttimeswallows
first time swallows
gangbangsquad
gang bang squad
gangboat
girlsgetcrazy
girlsget crazy
girls get crazy
hardporn
hard porn
herfirstanalsex
her first anal sex
herfirstasstomouth
her first ass to mouth
herfirstbigcock
her first big cock
herfirstdp
her first dp
herfirstlesbiansex
her first lesbian sex
hirsutebeavers
hirsute beavers
hisfirsthugecock
his first huge cock
hotcampusteens
hot campus teens
housewifebangers
house wife bangers
hugeboobsgalore
hugeboobs galore
huge boobs galore
hugerealboobs
huge real boobs
indiachix
india chix
insanecockbrothas
insane cock brothas
interracialjoy
interracial joy
iteens
i teens
justfacials
just facials
largegirlsxxx
large girls xxx
lesboerotica
lesbo erotica
maturexrotica
mature xrotica
milfseeker
milf seeker
movieaccess
movie access
mysextour
my sex tour
orgysexparties
orgy sex parties
pornoground
porno ground
pornstudsearch
porn stud search
seeasians
see asians
shegotpimped
she got pimped
sporterotica
sport erotica
squirthunter
squirt hunter
successwithgirls
success with girls
teensforcash
teens for cash
tittymax
titty max
ultravideos
ultra videos
virginteenlesbians
virgin teen lesbians
voyeurgals
voyeur gals
wildfucktoys
wild fuck toys
xxxsupersize
xxx supersize
realsquirt
18teenlive
18 teen live
adultmovienetwork
adult movie network
adultvideonetwork
adult video network
adultxxxpornstars
adult xxx pornstars
analcravings
anal cravings
asiancream
asian cream
bushhunter
bush hunter
cashstrappedteens
cash strapped teens
cocksusa
cock susa
collegefucktour
college fuck tour
cumswallowinglessons
cum swallowing lessons
cumswappingbitches
cum swapping bitches
curioushunks
curious hunks
ebonygirlsonline
ebony girls online
facialbuffet
facial buffet
fetishview
fetish view
freakishcocks
freakish cocks
gangbanglessons
gang bang lessons
hardcoremoviestation
hardcore movie station
hentaixxxsex
hentai xxx sex
hotspermfacials
hot sperm facials
interracialtv
interracial tv
iwantamateurs
iwant amateurs
lesbianlessons
lesbian lessons
lesborama
lesbo rama
maturehotel
mature hotel
milfrider
milf rider
milfriders
milf riders
militaryfantasy
military fantasy
momsneedcash
moms need cash
monstercockclub
monster cock club
monstercockfarm
monster cock farm
movieerotica
movie erotica
orgyfantasy
orgy fantasy
petitebeaver
petite beaver
pureteenporn
pure teen porn
realandnatural
real and natural
shavednwet
shavedn wet
shemaleseduction
simplyamateur
simply amateur
sluttoons
slut toons
studtoons
stud toons
teenagetwinks
teendirtbags
teen dirt bags
teenslutsgonewild
teen sluts gonewild
teenthrills
teen thrills
twinkcocks
twink cocks
ultrastud
ultra stud
uncensoredextreme
uncensored extreme
whitepussyblackcocks
whitepussy black cocks
wildlatinagirls
wildlatina girls
real squirt
allaboutashley
all about ashley
amazinganal
amazing anal
amazinggangbangs
amazing gang bangs
analpals
anal pals
analsweeties
anal sweeties
asiantease
asian tease
averageho
average ho
beachteens
beach teens
bimbowives
bimbo wives
blacksweeties
black sweeties
blondepubes
blonde pubes
boobieclub
boobie club
brownhairgirls
brown hair girls
bushless
bush less
celebhotel
celeb hotel
cigarettesluts
cigarette sluts
circuspenis
circus penis
clubheshe
club heshe
club he she
clubtitties
club titties
creamyfacials
creamy facials
cumcheeks
cum cheeks
digitalchicks
digital chicks
dildodippers
dildo dippers
dirtyxxxsex
dirty xxx sex
dreamkelly
dream kelly
ebonycheeks
ebony cheeks
facialmasters
facial masters
farmsecrets
farm secrets
farmsexy
farm sexy
filthyletters
filthy letters
fistbang
fist bang
footcravings
foot cravings
freshauditions
fresh auditions
freshfacials
fresh facials
freshteens
fresh teens
fuckingtoons
fucking toons
gir for girl
girlforgirl
girlranch
girl ranch
grandegirls
grande girls
hardcoretoons
hardcore toons
hothaley
hot haley
hotnudegranny
hot nude granny
indiauncovered
india uncovered
interracialsexfest
interracial sex fest
jennyheart
jenny heart
junglegirls
jungle girls
kinkymaturesluts
kinky mature sluts
kuntfu
kunt fu
latinasex
latina sex
latinatime
latina time
latinsfinest
latins finest
lipsticklesbo
lipstick lesbo
manhunter
man hunter
miniboobs
mini boobs
missionupskirt
mission upskirt
naughtyamateur
naughty amateur
naughtytherapy
naughty therapy
nevershot
never shot
oralfantasies
oral fantasies
perfectorgy
perfect orgy
pimp4aday
pimp 4 a day
pompomporno
pom pom porno
pornwannabe
porn wannabe
pregnantbang
pregnant bang
redhairsex
red hair sex
sarasexton
sara sexton
secretfetishes
secret fetishes
sexyhardcore
sexy hardcore
sheshuge
shes huge
shockingcocks
shocking cocks
slamthatass
slam that ass
slutmovies
slut movies
soapboys
solosydney
solo sydney
streetstrippers
street strippers
suckmebitch
suck me bitch
sugarmamas
sugar mamas
superbush
super bush
sweetcherrys
sweet cherrys
tabooinsertions
taboo insertions
teenbody
teen body
teenfactory
teen factory
upskirtschool
upskirt school
videoseekers
video seekers
voyeurteens
voyeur teens
wantwendy
want wendy
xxxtryouts
xxx tryouts
karas xxx
absolutelymale
absolutely male
adult movie zone
all big cocks
allteens
all teens
asian angels
asiannudes
asian nudes
asianpleasures
asian pleasures
asia porno
assbreakers
ass breakers
big and slutty
brunob
bruno b
chicabonbon
chica bon bon
classicmature
classic mature
cum splatter
dirty dykes
dirty teen
dude dorm
dudes online
ebonycafe
ebony cafe
ebonyfantasy
ebony fantasy
fuck spy
gogovideo
go go video
grandmaisaslut
grand maisa slut
granny fucking
heavyknockers
heavy knockers
interracial fuck
interracial fuck orgy
interracial orgy
ir orgy
jizzcatcher
jizz catcher
kara
karaadultplayground
kara adult playground
karasadult
karasadultplayground
karas adult playground
karasamateurs
karas amateurs
karasplayground
karasxxx
karas xxx
karaxxx
kara xxx
kinkylesbo
kinky lesbo
lickalicka
licka licka
lolita teen
malenextdoor
male next door
men in the nude
mr skin
newandinnocent
new and innocent
old tarts
orgyfrenzy
orgy frenzy
playersxxx
players xxx
pornbuster
porn buster
racialbang
racial bang
realhardcore
real hardcore
sex spy
sinful tales
spy cams
sweetblack
sweet black
sweetyoungboys
sweety oung boys
teen movie zone
teensteam
teen steam
tit vision
ultimatestud
ultimate stud
virginsparty
virgins party
webmature
web mature
webyoung
web young
wet scape
whipsandwomen
whips and women
wives exposed
xtremevoyeur
xtreme voyeur
youngamateurs
young amateurs
younglatina
young latina
mrskin
adultmoviezone
allbigcocks
amateur1stfuckflicks
amateur 1st fuck flicks
amazingbrunettes
amazing brunettes
americanhardcore
american hardcore
analranch
anal ranch
asianangels
asianvideowhores
asian video whores
asianxarchive
asian x archive
asiaporno
assfuckflicks
ass fuck flicks
bigandslutty
bigawesometits
big awesome tits
blondebombshells
blonde bombshells
blowjobuniversity
blow job university
chunkyparty
chunky party
cockswallowingvixens
cock swallowing vixens
cumshottheatre
cumshot theatre
cumsplatter
cumtomama
cum to mama
darkandsweet
dark and sweet
dirtydykes
dirtyteen
dudedorm
dudesonline
ebonyhoarchive
ebony ho archive
feetfantasy
feet fantasy
fuckspy
gangland
gang land
grannyfucking
hardxxxfuckvids
hard xxx fuck vids
hornyfirsttimers
horny first timers
hotpornstarcentral
hot pornstar central
interracialfuck
interracialfuckorgy
interracialorgy
interracialxxxmovies
interracial xxx movies
irorgy
jizzedsluts
jizzed sluts
latinamoviefiesta
latina movie fiesta
littlewetpanties
little wet panties
lolitateen
massivecockmadness
massive cock madness
megacockslingers
mega cock slingers
meninthenude
milfmoviemadness
milf movie madness
monstercockhouse
monster cock house
mrskin
oldtarts
overstuffedsluts
overstuffed sluts
petiteangels
petite angels
pornvideo
porn video
premierpornstarflicks
premier pornstar flicks
sexspy
sextoycinema
sex toy cinema
sinfultales
spycams
teencreampies
teen cream pies
teenmoviezone
teensbehavingbadly
teens behaving badly
teentryouts
teen tryouts
titvision
ultimatehardcoreflicks
ultimate hardcore flicks
wetscape
wivesexposed

The comments to this entry are closed.

Sponsors