Could MySpace Be Worth $15 Billion? Easy

The most surprising thing about RBC analyst Jordan Rohan's comment that MySpace could be worth $10-$20 billion in a few years is that he deemed this assessment "audacious"--and the press seemed to agree.  Why is this audacious?  In little more than two years, MySpace has come out of nowhere to become the 7th biggest site in the U.S.  Per NetRatings, it now has 50 million monthly users--closing in on half of Yahoo!'s domestic user base--and it is still growing at a fantastic rate (a reported 250,000 sign-ups a day).  MySpace recently signed a $900 million multi-year search deal with Google, showing that the revenue is starting to follow.  Etc.  Given all this, the theory that, in a few years, MySpace could be worth less than half of what Yahoo is worth with its now-battered valuation seems eminently reasonable.  On its current trajectory, in fact, MySpace could end up being worth a lot more.

That said, of course, it is also conceivable that MySpace might not continue on its current trajectory, might not be able to meaningfully monetize the site, might get so clogged with sex-predator and teen-porn lawsuits that advertisers stay miles away, might fail to lock in a fickle user base given to pronouncing formerly cool trends as "so last year," might, in any number of ways, prove a major disappointment.  It might even end up being worth less than Newscorp paid for it (circa $600 milllion).  Right now, however, it is certainly headed in the right direction.

Jordan's careful packaging of a not-so-audacious hypothesis is probably in part the result of a research environment in which analysts are terrified of saying anything bold for fear of getting sued.  For those who have watched the Internet for a while, however, the idea is far from outrageous.  MySpace could easily be worth $15 billion in a few years, or more...or $1 billion, or somewhere in between. 

The key now, for those trying to make a more refined assessment of the property's potential value, is to follow the money--on both sides of the ledger (revenue and costs).  One big search deal--and an obsession with music-related content--will not a $15 billion company make. 

Comments

[KING TROLL]

BACK BITCHES. FIRST!!

[Mr Wave Theory]

Forever Geek has a great post on how MySpace is really hyping its 100 million user number to the press. It's a great study. The study checked out 303 profiles and found that 50% of users don't even show up in a month. That's a very high attrition rate! I wonder what happened to those 50 million users?

Here's what I think are possible explanations:

* MySpace users have 2 accounts. Like free email accounts (think Hotmail and Yahoo), many people own more than one account - one for personal email and one for spam. So, if indeed, the average MySpace user has 2 accounts, then it makes sense that 50% of them won't show up after a month.

Read More

[robcpfc]

What a steaming pile of kaka its only a website for sad people who should get a life outside that box under their monitor.

[Chris Harker]

what a definite statement to make - worth somewhere between 1 or 15B? Talk about hedging your bets!

[Fjool]

Thing is... MySpace is shit. Not just saying that because I don't like it; it is genuinely shit - not stylish, not useful, not the best example of its genre. It's just the most well known and this is all that's feeding its success. Others are available and they are, for the most part, a lot better. Once people catch on to this, MySpace's popularity will sink like the leaden-turd that it is.

[Andrew Norris]

Anything can happen. But it is very risky. The youth audiance is subject to trends. "My Space" could easily become yesterday's thing. What is holding it up is the newest bands making use of it. If they found somewhere else to go that was more trendy or had a technological advantage - MySpace would immediately lose its interest to the youth market. I would say anywhere between 10 million to 5 billion. And much more likely to be 10 million - than 5 billion! It's outside of Murdock's control too. It's all down to chance.

[avneron]

i think there is a good chance it will be going in the right direction. it is getting A LOT of attention in News Corp. they know they may have hit jackpot with this one and will do everything they can to monetize it.

myspace will take a page from google's book. they will try to build on their core (social network) and monetize it, in the meanwhile leveraging their userbase and reach to launch new products and diversify.

[Matt]

Myspace is pretty lame. There is little of interest on the site. I see computer illiterates who find an easy way to post pictures of themselves online for no one in particular to see.

[Darren]

For MySpace to be worth anything substantial, it will have to start generating revenue. Whilst sites like YouTube and MySpace have become hugely popular in short spaces of time, legal encumbrances and moral issues will be encountered as they undergo continued expansion and attempt to turn themselves into bona fide business that make money.

[Cde Nyikayedu]

I signed up on my space coz my friend wanted me to search her profile.
I have not been back since.
I think investors really should look at how many users are regular users and not 2 time visitors.

$15 billion my a$$
Wish I could make money by spewing such crap

[Kay Tie]

Oh come on, this is Henry Blodget we're talking about, someone who hyped dogshit Internet stocks in the bubble while at Merrill Lynch (oh what short memories you all have).

[tony]

Myspace is on it's way out. People are getting bored with it. The ones that are signing up now or who have signed up recently are people who aren't really net savvy. And who wants to be part of something that's full of uncool people?

[Mappy]

MySpace, in my opinion is very annoying but people like it for different reasons, for instance some see it as a way of messenger to others around the world, or in some cases it's a free web site for people to promote and customize for themself, others hate it.

I don't think it should be worth $15Billion, to be honest I don't think it's worth even $1Billion.

[Mark Coyle]

Myspace has already peaked. The site is now riddled with advertising, hasn't incorporated it's own style customisations, looks clunky and hasn't moved on quickly enough. There are also lots of dubious people there and the sense of community is lost as everyone seeks to be everyone's friend regardless of interests. I believe the future is in smaller, more focussed communities. Web sites have to work hard not to become yesterday's thing, I think Myspace has been too busy working out how to milk the asset rather than evolving the value.

[Neil]

"MySpace is shit"
That's what I like about MySpace. It's shit and its worth $15b. What part of this statement does anyone not understand. Sounds like modern economics to me. Crap for crap. Get over it. Quality is so last century.

Ask yourself what could you build tomorrow that the MySpace generation would use for 10 minutes and ultimately make you very rich.

I think its shit, yet even I got me one.

http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=60973585

[TallTroll]

A few things to note about MySpace

1) Yes, it's shit. But guess what - it doesn't matter. The target audience is under 25, and are less sensitive to "traditional" web design standards - bear in mind that many of the most awful pages are user designed. They WANTED them to look like that

2) About 50% of the users are bots, just going around signing up to each others profiles, and leaving comments etc. I can think of at least 2 balding, slightly overweight, middle aged men who are hot chicks on MySpace, and not for any creepy reason, just because they can make a shedload of money that way

3) It's real value lies in the massive numbers of pageviews the real users generate, and the data. Google signed a deal guaranteeing $900m in revenues over 3 years (so that $600m investment already looks good), and it'll be well worth it to them. MySapce has already won

Will it ever be / is it worth $15b? *shrug* Maybe. Depends how loyal the users stay as they grow up. If MySpace can retain and grow it's userbase, and eventually monetise it, $15b will be small potatoes

[btuff]

i think myface.com is better and everyone should go there

[bombsite]

Why can't people just go back to creating there own websites, rather than uploading some pictures and music to Myspace? It doesn't even work properly most of the time.

[shitEVERYWHERE]

hurm i logically think dat myspace is the shittest ever.. it's the place for people to promote theirself dat r not famous actually.. they try to make theirself famous with putting pic wif different pose . famous pose dat they're always captured: headfish, fishface , big eye, the longMOUTH, emo , head without face hair only, their ass , their boobs , their cheap-branded accesorries , their beloved one , fucking gay ass moron shit.

[Breandan]

Got this today.............

Hey MySpace artists,

Music has always been at the heart of the MySpace community. As an artist, you have a place to connect directly with music lovers and build a fan base. Now, through our partnership with SNOCAP, you can sell digital downloads right on your MySpace page. This is something we’ve wanted to bring to you for a long time, and now it’s here!

It’s really simple. Just click the “Create Your MySpace Music Store” link on your Home page to register with SNOCAP (or click here), upload your music, and set your price. Your store will be automatically created on your MySpace profile right underneath the MySpace player, and a new “Manage Music Store” link will appear on your home page which lets you edit your songs or change the price. Once you’ve created your store your fans will be able to purchase your tracks right off your profile and even post your store on their own profiles, and you’ll get paid on a monthly basis. Click The Format
to check it out.

You don’t need to wait to have a CD’s worth of music to sell. Record something tonight and make it available immediately. Or upload a few tracks from the soundboard recording of your last show. A MySpace/SNOCAP MyStore puts the power of distribution in your hands. And best of all, it doesn’t limit any of your choices. You can still stream up to 4 tracks for free from the MySpace player on your page. You keep all the rights to your music. And this isn’t exclusive – you can put a MySpace/SNOCAP MyStore on your MySpace page and paste the store anywhere else on the web you use for promotion; plus you can also sell through an aggregator or any other digital retailer you have access to.

You already use MySpace to market & promote – now you can sell your songs!

Tom

[VPS Hosting]

Myspace is a nice place to interact with different people but now myspace is getting over crowded so the Myspace is deleting the people myspace account and they have not even mention anywhere about the restoration of these delted accounts.

[chris roberts pokes shit]

myspace is fuckin gay! its just full of simple bastards. and fuckin emo twats.
they should just blow it up. www.myspace.com/chrisfatshit .

[LTS]

Could someone teach bombsite how to type?
Yes, Myspace is a flaming shit of a site. I hope that it crashes sometime in 2007 *cough* team of elites should bring it down *wheeze* *cough*.

[Adam]

It makes me happy that stupid people dont like the same things that I do. :)

[Gratis Spill]

I think the estimate is pretty much good. I mean, if you ran a newspaper in the real world that had 50 million monthly readers - how much would it be worth? What's the reason for visitors to a website being less worth than readers of a newspaper? Today, it makes sense to some people. Time will prove them wrong.