Google to be "King of All Media"?

In a debate at OMMA Hollywood today, I will argue that Google will NOT become "king of all media."  Although my esteemed opponents will no doubt come packing heat, it seems to me that theirs is a losing proposition.

Five points:

• First, we must define terms, because if "King of Media" means richest, most powerful company in the media sector, Google's already there.  (Sorry, Sumner.)  If "King of ALL Media," however, means the company that creates, produces, and monetizes all media, forget it.

 

• Traditional media content--journalism, linear storytelling (in TV and movies), music, talk shows, comedy--is not going away. Google currently does not produce traditional media content, and won't unless it radically changes its business. What Google does do--extremely well--is organize, distribute and aggregate media.  As a result, it is a major threat to traditional media distributors, but not (in most cases) to media creators.  (For the purposes of this debate, I'm going to assume that to be "King of All Media" one can't just be a distributor).

• Google generates the vast majority of its profit (profit, not revenue) from the one content product that it does produce: search results.  Some fear/assume that Google's recent initiatives with print and radio will result in these and other media industries being subsumed into a Googleplex.  This is ludicrous.  In its offline initiatives, Google is acting as little more than a technology enhanced ad-rep firm--one that takes a small cut of the profits (and, with big partners, after overhead, the cut is small), in exchange for selling ads.  If Google's offline efforts are successful, it will likely become a good partner for media companies, not a competitor.  (Which isn't to say that other online companies aren't assaulting traditional media).

• Even Google can't win three wars at once.  Yes, Google has, so far, crushed its online competition.  It will only continue to do so, however, if it keeps its eyes on the ball.  In addition to keeping its Intenet competitors at bay, however, Google has also indicated that it wants to destroy Microsoft Office--a move that probably will not cause Redmond to just wave the white flag.  To become "king of all media", meanwhile, Google will have to go about destroying newspapers, magazines, cable companies, radio networks, TV studios, and other entities not known for just rolling over.  If Sergey, Larry, Eric, et al, are as smart as they appear to be, they won't be dumb enough to try to do this.

• Believe it or not, Google does have some online competition.  Although Yahoo was knocked flat in the early rounds, it has recently staggered back to its hands and knees.  Now that Microsoft's core business is under attack, meanwhile, it may finally begin to get its Internet act together (unlikely, I know).  But if Google really does try to "attack" traditional media, these two companies and others will be waiting with their arms open--a fair, reasonable Internet partner who doesn't want to doesn't want to see the media glory days come to an end.

Now, will Google, Yahoo, and others eventually become single-destinations in which people can go to find and use ANY content?  I sure hope so.  Before that happens, however, a lot of revenue-sharing, copyright, security, and other issues are going to have to be worked out. 

Also, some content (though not all) will always be king--and the people who create and produce it will always get a big cut of the profit.  For such content, no Internet company will ever have the gate-keeping power of, say, a cable company.  If a user wants to view Superbowl clips, he or she will go to whichever site is hosting them.  That site, in all likelihood, will be whatever site wants to pay the most for the privilege.

Comments

[King Troll]

Henry are you not allowed to talk about financial markets at all? If so for how long? You act like the shit doesn't exist bro. Sometimes, not a lot, but sometimes i feel like beating your ass dude. Let's get some stock input.

[King Troll]

Damn bro, I just saw that link. That hoe Julie Roehm
looks like she gives mean head. You BETTER try to hit that shit bro.

Also thats the first time i saw your pic. Haha you look sneaky as fuck bro.

Tell Nick Grouf that i need some commercials for apparel stores like Pacsun, DEMO, Man Alive... Then I'll use SpotRunner.

I just noticed Arianna let me know how she looks in person. She looks stuck up so if I were you i's brush that hoe off and play hard to get.

[echotoall]

Google does not want to be king of all media. (just partners with the kings :)

as to your points...

1. "Traditional media content- GOOG needs them, so it is in GOOG's best interest to work with them and make them strive"... obviously, but they have no desire to create content. (they are not confused like Yahoo.)

2. obviously

3. "Even Google can't win three wars at once."... if GE can win multiple fronts, why not GOOG? (u, as well as others, continuously bring it up, and i think it is a very superficial argument. plus, they don't have to win all battles, just excel in them)

4. "Google does have some online competition"... that has yet to materialize anything meaningful. Just because Yahoo launched panama, does that mean it will gain more users? Panama was not about users, but about advertisers. The numbers speak for themselves.

[Erik]

One assumption struck me--you note: "For the purposes of this debate, I'm going to assume that to be "King of All Media" one can't just be a distributor."

Doesn't this just change the question to whether or not you see Goog as becoming the most dominant, influential, media distributor or do you also think that is a dubious proposition?

I guess I'm curious because if they are the #1 in being able to "organize, distribute and aggregate media" as you indicate, isn't it a small step to being the biggest "king-maker" (i.e., the ability to bestow "kingship" on any particular media creator at their whim)? And doesn't the entity that controls who gets to be king have a pretty good argument that it is, in fact, the "King of All Media"?

[TallTroll]

>> does that mean it will gain more users?

No, but rolling out YPN (Yahoo Pulisher Network, their AdSense competitor product) does. Remember, half or more of Googles revenues are actually from the AdSense network, not the search network.

There are plenty of webmasters in non-US territories who currently have real AdSense replacements available, and demand is pent-up. Deployment of YPN improving distribution, coupled with the advertiser side improvments promised by Panama could make Yahoo a real competitor for Google again.

I know several large scale AdWords advertisers who would love to switch budget from G to Y, but can't because

1) Yahoo make it too hard in terms of administration to work with then (Panama will allegedly resolve many of those issues)

2) They just can't buy that much traffic from them - the inventory isn't there (YPN will address this)

Yahoo are due to release both in the UK (not as massive a market as the US, but still significant) in the next few months. 2007 could be a good year for them, and set up a strong finish to the decade - provided they don't show the same poor judgement in hamstringing themselves again. Google have already struck back by announcing their CPA affiliate-a-like product

[Internet Inside-her]

Oh yeah Julie, allegedly bangin' it with a subordinate:

http://www.thefiveforty.com/julie_roehm/walmart_gives_roehm_the_finger_fires_draftfcb.html

I guess Walmart wasn't the only one giving her the finger, so to speak.

[Joe Marchese]

Hey Henry,

Great arguing with you. The argument I never got to finish on the panel is up here:

http://blogs.mediapost.com/spin/?p=999

[David Porter]

Henry,

Re: "Now, will Google, Yahoo, and others eventually become single-destinations in which people can go to find and use ANY content? I sure hope so. Before that happens, however, a lot of revenue-sharing, copyright, security, and other issues are going to have to be worked out."

This is the old portal model, no? While Google and Yahoo will undoubtedly continue to build out a wide array of best-of-class offerings, it seems the future single-destination is more likely to be one's own, hand-crafted with content from multiple providers, along the lines of Netvibes, Pageflakes, Yourminis, etc.

Google and Yahoo can and do this also of course but they'll have to continue to make it easy for users to add content from external sources to keep pace. It'll be interesting to see how advertising ultimately fits into this model.

[Andrew]

No, but rolling out YPN (Yahoo Pulisher Network, their AdSense competitor product) does. Remember, half or more of Googles revenues are actually from the AdSense network, not the search network.

This exaggerates the impact of Adsense. Since around 80% of Adsense is paid back to the site owner, Adwords actually earns Google about 5x more than Adsense.