Updated Skype Financial Model

Keeping the model experiment alive...

Skype's growth in Q1 was solid, but nothing to crow about.  Year-over-year revenue growth slowed from 166% in Q4 to 123% in Q1.  User growth was also solid-but-decelerating, up 107% year over year.

All in, the picture looks worse than it did last quarter.  Skype now appears to be on track to do just under $400 million in revenue this year, down from about a $435 million trajectory last quarter. 

No surprise, therefore, that Skype announced two mostly unrelated and unimpressive new-product initiatives last quarter: Skype Find and Skype Prime.

Skype Financial Model

Comments

[Rappin' Timmy G]

In spite of the financial results, has Skype become MORE valuable than last quarter due to the Vonage/Verizon court ruling? By default, Skype's relevance has risen, and the likelihood of attracting new VOIP customers has just risen slightly.

[JR]

That's a nice financial model on google spreadsheets...
You can get a faster version for people to see using the "publish" tab...
Using a published version, people will not be able to save their own copy, see the formulas, see changes in realtime or chat/discuss live.
The version you used (anyone can view) allows all of those features but takes a bit longer to load and only allows up to 50 people on at one time.

BTW - You can get charts now on Google Spreadsheets! This should be a great feature for you - particularly combined with publishing to your blog... contact me if you want any help with that.

[Josh]

When the Skype acquistion was first announced, I thought it was too expensive and wouldn't generate enough revenues or profit. A year later, this transaction looks very smart. The main reason is that all of the users will increasingly use search and receive revenue by advertising/click throughs or a company will pay some sort of annual fee. This arrangement will have little cost to Ebay and consequently huge net profit margins. A second reason is some Skype users will also use Paypal for which they can generate revenues from as well.

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