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September 22, 2007

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CrossProfit

Henry,

In a normal downturn, the sequence of events usually takes the form of increased advertising just prior to a sharp decline. What happens is that as growth slows, businesses think that they can stem the decline by increasing their advertising budgets. Once they realize that they are cannibalizing profits, they cut back drastically.

Currently we are just before the advertisement increase stage. The same happened in the current real estate bubble where advertisement was at its peak several months after the decline had begun. Taking this into account, unless you conclude that the economy has gone into recession several months ago, the internet advertisement peak is yet to come.

Sorry, but I beg to differ from your conclusion.

Disclosure: This is the personal opinion of a Cross Profit analyst and may not represent the opinion of CrossProfit.

Mr. Business Golf

Henry,

Your prediction is profound and it looks to becoming a fact. The rumbles from Madison Avenue indicate even more pull back of online advertising will be made in 2008 since the six to seven years of madding blitzing of the internet of indiscriminate placement of ads on every web-site has not produced the ROI needed to replenish the advertising budgets. Seems the only businesses who gained over the past ten years were the online businesses who hyped that people on the internet buy anything that is advertised. Again, from what I am hearing from many of the businesses who have been online advertising but received little for it we should start seeing a pull back in the amount advertisers are willing to spend for unproductive advertisements. This is kind of like the 1960 rush to build billboards along the nation's highways only to find in 1980 that nobody is reading them and they had to tear them down. The world of online advertising seems to be declining to more proven and sound methods of marketing.

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Summary. We continue to believe that we may be in the first stages of a cyclical downturn for advertising and the Internet sector--one that will affect not only start-ups and second-tier players but majors like Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO), AOL, et al.

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