Internet Outsider

Trust Me, You Don't Want To Miss This One (Fox Business News on Apple's AMD Deal)

My colleague at SAI, Michael Learmonth, reported this gem of a blooper on Fox Business News this morning:

At 9:27 this morning, Fox Business co-anchor Alexis Glick eagerly reported Apple (AAPL) had taken an 8% stake in AMD. Fox's guest contributor, Charles Payne, immediately analyzed the deal and pronounced it a brilliant move for both parties.

The problem? It wasn't Apple buying AMD.  It also, unfortunately, wasn't a mysterious pan-Arabian country called "Abu Dubai," as Glick announced when she corrected the Apple report. (It was Abu Dhabi.)

Marvelous transcript on SAI.

Microsoft Hallucinating? Or Planning to Buy Yahoo?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that Microsoft division president Kevin Johnson is not a moron. So I'm also going to assume that, when Johnson said yesterday that Microsoft plans to grow its search share from 10% to 30% and its online ad share from 6%, he could not possibly be imagining that Microsoft could do this on its own.

So how could Microsoft actually achieve those goals?

Answer? (And there's only one). Buy Yahoo.

Buying Yahoo would give Microsoft 30% search share instantly. It would also boost Microsoft's ad share close to that 40% goal.

I continue to think that a Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo would be disastrous for Yahoo (not to mention creating an annoying one-time tax hit for us long-term Yahoo shareholders). But what such an acquisition would do to Yahoo is irrelevant. If Microsoft comes in with a Murdoch-like offer, Yahoo won't be able to refuse.
 
See Also:
Microsoft's MSN: Still Sucking Wind After All These Years
SAI's Microsoft Online Key Data Spreadsheet

Recession Watch: We're Probably Already in One

Over at Silicon Alley Insider, we've been tracking recession signs for the past few months.  Enough bad news is coming out now from enough industries now that I think it's reasonable to assume that we're already in a recession (Economists can't pinpoint recessions without the benefit of hindsight, and most recessions usually start while economists are still predicting that we won't have one).

Of course, whether we are technically in a recession or not is irrelevant--it's the trend that matters.  And the trend is still getting worse. We continue to believe that the growing weakness will eventually hit online advertising, hurting AOL, Yahoo, Google, and others.

For example, in the past 24 hours, here's what's happened:

• FedEx cuts outlook, blames higher prices and economic weakness.
• Starbucks has weak quarter, blames economy and price inflation.
• Internet Brands reduces size/price of IPO.
• New York Times reports weak October revenues, especially in retail advertising...

Full recession timeline and background here.

Okay, I'm Back. Thanks for the Patience.

Silicon Alley Insider is up and running, with several of us now posting full time (Peter Kafka and Dan Frommer from Forbes and Michael Learmonth from Variety). We'll be launching another site soon, so time will continue to be in short supply. But enough of you have sent kind notes asking that I get Internet Outsider going again that I'm going to make it a priority.

For now, most of what you'll find here will probably also be available elsewhere: Silicon Alley Insider, Huffington Post, and other sites.  I'll be the only writer here, though, and in contrast to SAI et al, everything will be in the first person.

Thanks again for the patience.  It's great to be back.