Recession Watch: We're Probably Already in One

Over at Silicon Alley Insider, we've been tracking recession signs for the past few months.  Enough bad news is coming out now from enough industries now that I think it's reasonable to assume that we're already in a recession (Economists can't pinpoint recessions without the benefit of hindsight, and most recessions usually start while economists are still predicting that we won't have one).

Of course, whether we are technically in a recession or not is irrelevant--it's the trend that matters.  And the trend is still getting worse. We continue to believe that the growing weakness will eventually hit online advertising, hurting AOL, Yahoo, Google, and others.

For example, in the past 24 hours, here's what's happened:

• FedEx cuts outlook, blames higher prices and economic weakness.
• Starbucks has weak quarter, blames economy and price inflation.
• Internet Brands reduces size/price of IPO.
• New York Times reports weak October revenues, especially in retail advertising...

Full recession timeline and background here.

Comments

[mhallen]

It's so weird to me the big debate over recession vs. not a recession. I know you posted this way back in November, but I was just on another blog and they are painting a rosy picture of the current and near future economy. I was on http://fisher-investments.typepad.com. When will we know who's correct?

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